Maybe, maybe not. The U.S. economy is expanding. It is likely to show a growth rate of more than 2% at an annual rate when the government gives its first estimate of the second-quarter performance Thursday.
The continued growth raises a key question: Could this be the first U.S. recession without a decline in economic output?
The nation's gross domestic product -- its total output of goods and services -- expanded at a 1% pace in the first quarter, reflecting a rise in exports because of the declining dollar. The growth defied predictions from some economists that a contraction would begin during the period.
Revisiting Housing Seasonality & the Perennial Bottom Callers
at 2008-07-28 12:07:50
I've been meaning to go over some of the details in last week's Housing data. I was surprised to hear several commentators discuss the imminent turnaround in Housing.
Mind you, these were the people who missed the entire significance of Housing before the collapse, who insisted it was contained, and would not infect anything else. "Why are you so obsessed with Housing" I was asked repeatedly by this crowd from 2005 thru '07. Perhaps I shouldn't be all that surprised at what the usual crowd of shills and pollyannas states, given their horrific track record.
Recall that back in March, we noted in passing that both Bloomberg and the WSJ had misinterpreted the Existing Home Sales data. I said bluntly they both "got it wrong." The spin do
