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friday morning
at 2007-02-06 15:26:24

SHORT TERM: market opens higher on weaker job report.
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, except for China's SSEC which tumbled 4%. Looks like China is finally correcting after a torrid advance where this market gained 94%. Europe came in about 0.50% higher, and our stock index futures were relatively quiet before the open. At 8:30 the Labor dept. reported Jan. non-farm payrolls rose less than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The stock index futures rallied on the news and the market opened higher. At the open the SPX/DOW/R2K made new bull market highs, and, the TRAN posted an all time new high for the first time since May06. After a few minutes the market pulled back some to make a short term low at 10:00, and then rallied higher for the day. Bonds are up a 1/4 point, we have possibly seen the medium term low, and Crude is up 15 cents, as yesterday should have been the end to Crude's short term rally. Gold is off $10.00, a short term pullback after getting overbought, and the Euro is down today. Currently stocks are trading modestly higher, as the SPX has hit 1449. The tech leaders, Google and Apple, remain under pressure after both posted higher than expected earnings, and received numerous upgrades. In the meantime, tech is focusing on the Crude market. If the high for the short term rally in Crude was yesterday, as expected, it should now start heading back down to $50, and then lower. I'm estimating that we will see $40 Crude before this bear market ends. Obviously, the quicker Crude declines, the stronger the uptrend in stocks will be. Earnings reports are now mostly out of the way, the FED is neutral and looking for a reason to cut rates to help stimulate the housing and manufacturing sectors. Another precipitous drop in the price of Crude might be all that is required, along with soft Jan. and Feb. economic data. Technically, the cyclical SPX/DOW are short term overbought, and the tech NDX/NAZ are beginning to approach those levels too. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.       


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