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News for July, 2008

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Tabs On The Tape
at 2008-07-28 12:07:51

Good morning. We start another day with disappointment over the last batch of earnings reports.

As you probably already know, a number of well-known companies (including AXP, AAPL, WB among many others) either reported earnings that missed expectations and/or offered very disappointing guidance. In addition, many executives expressed extremely cautious comments about the economy and their business outlook for the rest of the year during their conference calls.

Premarket gainers: FDRY, STEI, DPZ, EXTR, STLD, BJS, UAUA, WCG, JBLU, TTES, TLK, MELA, QLGC, BXG, ACGY, CBST, BIIB, LOGI, WGOV, GTLS, PDE, VLTR, & HOKU.

Premarket losers: BRCD, SNDK, MICC, AAPL, SGLP, AGO, IFX, LRCX, TEF, ERIC, ASML, FITB, KLAC, DELL, WB, AXP, VOD, MRK, TXN, KEY, DFS, COF, DNDN, RIMM, FRE, MHK, MA, SGP, NOK, & V.

Other than earnings we really don't have a lot of new data to work with except the 10:AM State Street Investor Confidence Index. The next big datapoint will be Friday's durable goods orders.

As we continue keeping tabs on the tape, please keep in mind that one of the best tells of a significant character change for the market is when we see the market rally even in the face of more bad news when the market logically should continue moving lower. When the market can look past the current negatives and show some confidence that those negatives and future negatives are priced in, is when we'll see the market action significantly improve. So far, we're seeing few signs of that yet, but that doesn't mean we won't and relatively soon.

For now, I suspect that many are now looking and expecting a retest of the prior lows before they'll feel even slightly comfortable putting cash back in play on the long side without any new positive catalysts to work with. Unfortunately, we need market participants to feel like they're missing an opportunity and the only feeling of that lately is not being short enough of this awful market.

Have a terrific Tuesday!



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