It's been predicted for 25 years that the United State's position as the über global power would fade away as other empires had done before. Paul Kennedy wrote The Rise and Fall of Powers in 1987 chronicling the pattern of civilizations emerging as the global leader only to proceed to an inevitable decline.

The Chinese Dynasty was the oldest and had the largest tenure, going from 2000 B.C. to 1911 A.D. Paper, watches and gunpowder were all inventions of the Chinese. The Babylonian Empire went from 612 to 539 B.C. The Persian Empire reigned from 560 B.C. to 636 A.D. The Greek Empire went from 500 B.C. to 146 B.C. The Roman Empire became the most powerful civilization ever known from 40 B.C. to 400 A.D. Britain's power and influence was paramount from 1497 A.D. to 1917 A.D. The nearly 100 years with the United States as the most important economic, political and cultural power started after World War I.

In Fareed Zakaria's excellent new book The Post American World he articulates the vision of an America which doesn't decline but where the rest of the world rises up. Globalization and global growth have provided opportunities to the 95% of the world that doesn't live in the United States that here-to-fore were non-existent.

Zakaria points out that between 2006 and 2007, 124 countries grew at a rate of 4% or greater which includes 30 countries in Africa. What was once to be thought of the exclusive claims of the United States is now found: the world's tallest building is in Taipei (soon Dubai), the world's richest man is from Mexico, the largest publically traded company is Chinese, the biggest plane is being built in Russia, the leading refinery is in India, and the United Arab Emirates have the richest endowed investment funds. Moreover, the largest gambling town by revenue is Macao not Las Vegas. The most films last year were produced in Bollywood, not Hollywood. Only one of the top ten shopping malls is located in the United States. And so on and so on.

This is very bad news if you believe in Island America which needs to be number one at everything for our quality of life and success. It is fantastic news if you believe that global prosperity creates expanded opportunities and larger markets.

Twenty years ago, a U.S. technology company (or retail or financial services, etc) with a better mousetrap had a total market opportunity of at most 250 million people that lived between Honolulu and Freeport, Maine. Today, with globalization, the potential market is 20x larger. Four hundred million new people have come into the middle class in China in the past ten years - 1.3x the entire United States population. Vietnam has 20 million users on the Internet today.

The United States' role in the "Post-American World" according to Zakaria is that of the Chairman of the Board but with a strong executive management team and with division heads.

There is a saying that the demographics are "a destiny which I subscribe to." Demographics are like a slow hanging curveball sitting up ready to hit out of the park. The reason demographics forecast is often so predictable is straightforward - if there are 20 million Americans who are currently at ages 20 to 29, in ten years, there will be essentially 20 million Americans at ages 30 to 39. Obviously, the impact of various ages on the local and global economy is enormous.

The aging of the World's economy is taking place in nearly every developed country, especially in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Japan. For example in Germany, nearly 50% of its population is expected to be over 65 by 2030 compared to 20% today. The population of Japan is expected to shrink from 125 million people today to under 100 million and the number of working people as a percentage of the population is predicted to fall even more dramatically.

In America in less than five years, the 79 million baby-boomers will be moving into retirement, draining pensions, reducing the workforce and putting huge strains on the medical system. Here are some very interesting charts by Ross Perot http://perotcharts.com/challenges/

If you are a globalist as opposed to a nationalist, the positive demographics facts are that the rest-of-the-world is very young. Growth in the developing/younger world will be fueled by exports to the aging world.

Other demographic shifts we see are as follows:

An aging population is going to require more healthcare, increased travel, and it will be looking for ways to enhance its retirements. Premium wines, beers and coffees will benefit. So too will financial services.

As women become a larger percentage of executives in business, nanny services and corporate childcare become more in demand, take-out food and pre-made dinners are on trend as are tutoring, maid and gardening services.

In the I-Generation, most kids can't remember when the internet wasn't always on. To them, the cell phone is like the automobile was to our parents - a way to exercise their independence and exhibit self-expression. Ring tones, text messaging, games and movies, are what the I-Generation expects in one smart device.

The Hispanic population is the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, currently 14% of the US population is Hispanic and it is expected to be 20% by 2020. With this growth come great opportunities for target marketers, focused media and smart retailers.

Immigration will continue to grow rapidly, though likely slow from some parts of the world as growth and liberalization in the developing countries creates increasing opportunities at home. The minority populations will continue to rapidly grow into the mainstream, with the Latino population's growth in numbers and spending power being the first to meaningfully redefine the retail, media, and financial services industries.

The combination of an aging population and the events of 9/11 have provided a catalyst for a religious revival. In 1994, the Gallup Poll asked Americans whether they felt the need to experience spiritual growth - 20% said yes. By 1999, 78% said yes, and this was before 9/11! Rick Warren has sold 25 million copies of The Purpose Driven Life, and "The Passion of the Christ" is one of the most successful movies of all time, grossing over $600 million (to the great surprise of "the experts"). With up to 80 million "Evangelicals" - $7 billion in Christian music and $2.24 billion of Christian books was sold in 2004 according to Billboard. Christian music, Christian books and Christian media are obvious winners; family restaurants such as Potbellys, family entertainment like Six Flags, and virtuous apparel retailers (the anti-Abercrombie and Fitch) win big too.

Demographic trends over the next 20 years will prove incredibly dynamic. The oldest of the Baby Boomer generation will begin leaving the workforce and entering retirement around 2010, but 90% of Gen-Y (the Echo Boomers) will have entered the labor markets by that time, and thanks to the size of the Gen-Y, the effects of the vanishing work force will nearly be offset. Of course, replacing seasoned employees with new entrants will present new challenges for companies.

Generation Y will be the first generation of size to grow up with information technology, leap-frogging Generation X's mere comfort with technology, the result of the Sony Walkman, Atari, the Apple 2E, Commodore 64 and VCR. Beyond using technology, Generation Y's experiences will extend to understanding how information technology works, and can work, when applied to things so far untried by prior generations.

Across numerous industries, Baby Boomers and the younger generations will create polarizing forces: Boomers frequenting stores to shop (and spending more time shopping), Generations X and Y bypassing them almost completely; travel industries seeing sharp growth in leisure demand, while business travel wanes; financial services restructure to cater to retirees, while commercial, merchant and "venture banks" build out new capabilities to meet the explosion in new business ventures and restructuring of more mature industries.

Politically, Baby Boomers will face their first real challenges from outside of their own demographic, as the larger combined size of Generations X and Y begins to wield meaningful influence - economically, technologically and socially.

In short, emerging demographic shifts will not only play a primary role, but given the size and scope of the changes taking place, will prove disruptive to past technological, economic and social legacies. We will be looking for emerging opportunities where these legacies are falling away.

The market was mixed last week consistent with mixed economic news. Inflation was up 0.6%, but "core" inflation was up only 0.2% - somehow, energy and food aren't "core." The dollar had its best week in three years but consumer confidence hit a 28-year low. Retail sales increased 1% in May but the 10-year note surged to 4.2%. Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH, $25.81) stock rocketed up 14% on Friday but the company axed its CFO and COO after reporting a $2+ billion loss in Q2 and said they needed another $6 billion in capital to avoid doing a Bear Stearns. On the "oil bubble" alert, CNBC now has an always-on box for oil prices, just like it has for the Dow and NASDAQ.

With all said and done, the Dow advanced 0.8% for the week, the S&P 500 was essentially flat and NASDAQ was down 0.8%.

As we get twisted and turned around by the barrage of noise, one truth keeps ringing in our ears: how the company does ultimately is how the stock does. We'll keep being focused on that.

On a final note, we want to pay our respects to the sudden and tragic death of NBC's Tim Russert on Friday. Meet the Press was a "must watch" show for me mainly due to the excellence in journalism that Mr. Russert exhibited each and every week. If it's Sunday, we are all going to miss Mr. Russert greatly.