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Retail sales up, but for how much longer?
at 2006-07-09 19:43:05
Retail sales rose in Japan in May, and the World Cup apparently has something to do with it. Bloomberg reports:

Retail sales, which reflect sales at brick-and-mortar businesses including department stores and supermarkets, rose 0.1 percent in May from a year earlier, the trade ministry said in Tokyo. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for sales to drop 0.6 percent...

Fuel sales surged 7.1 percent, accounting for almost 70 percent of the gains in retail sales, the trade ministry said. Prices at the pump climbed 11 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the Tokyo-based Oil Information Center. That adds 715 yen ($6.16) to the cost of filling the tank of a Corolla compact, Toyota Motor Corp.'s top-selling vehicle...

Sales of electronics, including flat-screen televisions and DVD recorders, rose 0.4 percent in May



Stocks surge as Fed talks of cooling in the US while data show heating in Europe
at 2006-07-09 19:43:05
It was a pretty good day for stocks yesterday.

 28 June
close
29 June
close
Percent
change
S&P 5001,246.001,272.872.2
Nikkei 22514,886.1115,121.151.6
FTSE 1005,678.6


US core inflation "contained" but other economies heating up along with World Cup
at 2006-07-09 19:43:03
Plenty of economic data yesterday to chew on.

The US Commerce Department reported yesterday that personal income increased 0.4 percent in May, disposable personal income increased 0.3 percent and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent in May, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in April. The PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in April.

Reuters summarises that report, suggesting that "core inflation remains contained" but Americans still "borrowed more and saved less to support their shopping habits", pointing to a personal saving rate of negative 1.7 percent.

Other data highlighted in the Reuters story:

The



Stock market rally may not last
at 2006-07-09 19:43:03
It has been a testing month or two for stock investors with most stock markets experiencing major corrections. However, the recent recovery in stock prices and suggestions of a possible end to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have given some investors hope that markets are past their bottoms, a hope that, unfortunately, may not be well founded.

After a steep fall in May and early June, stocks recovered a little in the second half of June. 29 June in particular saw the Standard & Poor's rise 2.2 percent, its biggest one-day percentage gain since October 2003. The S&P 500 was flat for June as a whole but is now up 1.8 percent since the beginning of 2006.

It is a similar story in other markets. Japan's Nikkei 225 edged up 0.2 percent in June, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.9 percent while the volatile Sensex index of Indian stocks climbed 2.0 percent.

That leaves most major stock markets in positive territory again for 2006, with the notable exception



Manufacturing PMI down in US and Japan but up in Europe and China
at 2006-07-09 19:43:03
US manufacturing may be slowing, as Reuters reports:

An index of national factory activity, released by the Institute for Supply Management, fell to 53.8 in June from 54.4 in May, falling short of economists' forecasts for a rise to 55. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the factory sector.

But the data is ambiguous.

The prices paid index fell to 76.5 in June from 77.0 May, while new orders, an indicator of future growth, rose to 57.9 in June from 53.7 in May.

The employment number in the report dipped to 48.7 from 52.9 in May, the first time it had been below 50 since October 2003.

Among other indicators released yesterday, construction spending fell 0.4 percent in May while
 

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