| |
Bubblicious
at 2005-12-12 18:19:46
Educational use only. Never intended as advice.
If you're looking for original ideas, then maybe this isn't the place. Why? Because if I had the 'Rosetta Stone' of investment ideas, would I post it here? Actually, I think mean reversion has the best risk ratio of the 'Method Man' journey I've followed.
History tells us that market 'excess' subsequently results in mean reversion. Jeremy Grantham has the data...I'm just repeating. Excess returns are followed by mean reversion, just as excess volatility is followed by diminished volatility. What 'they' want us to believe is that 'this time it's different'. What is different is that our economy runs on debt, furious, frenetic, ferocious debt. That matters. Amidst global liquidity excess and efforts at currency debasement, we witness the inevitable concomitant, a migration to 'hard assets', gold, silver, and colle
Nuts and Bolts
at 2005-12-12 18:19:46
Educational use only. Never intended as advice. Can be printed out and used for kindling.
Alrightee, then. The simplest way to view the market for now is, 'unlikely to make any gigantic move in either direction', absent some external event. Positive catalyst? Hard to imagine one, unless Jack Abramoff's pockets spring a leak. Negative catalyst? I suppose Alan Greenspan could confess that he's a crack addict, although with his fractured English, would English teachers be surprised?
Supposedly one of the great assets of Steve Cohen of SAC Capital is his ability to match strategies (the playbook) to the situation. According to Tom DeMark, Cohen is 'the best'. I'd love to have a chance to eat lunch with him, unless he's a vegan.
Oversold ETFs
Caveat Emptor: Financial Reporting - Gargoyles Gone Wild
at 2005-12-12 18:19:46
Educational use only. Never intended as advice. Do I look like a fortune-teller?
"A visitor to Scotland surveyed a vast flock of sheep and said to the shepherd, 'if I can tell you how many are in your charge, can I have one?' The shepherd replied, 'sure, you can't guess'. The visitor scanned for about thirty seconds and opined, '7768'. 'That's amazing', answered the shepherd, 'pick one'. The tourist walked over and quickly grabbed a sheep. The shepherd asked, 'if I can guess your profession, can I get my sheep back?' His visitor nodded in assent.
First Cut: Swensen versus 'The System'
at 2005-12-12 18:19:46
Educational use only. Never intended as
advice.
Pretty mediocre day for the markets which led to a downturn for the 'Swensen' portfolio, with a smaller decrease in the heavily cash-laden 'System' portfolio.
Here's the game. Using ETFs (a modification of Swensen's strategy in Unconventional Success) the Swensen portfolio holds US and foreign equities, real estate, and T-bonds in defined asset allocation. The 'System' goes long half or full positions to the same maximum percentage of the Swensen allocation (depending on whether the market is oversold or overbought) when the individual ETFs signal buys using proprietary criteria.
The 'System' portfoli
Mixed Signals at 2005-12-12 18:19:46
Educational use only. Never intended as advice.
First, I want to comment that more than anything else, Wall Street is about pure unadulterated promotion. Reporting about Wall Street tends to parallel the Street's message. Specifically, on the Yahoo portfolio site today, for the whole day, the lead headline is 'Productivity Number Soars'. Is this continuous news or continuous hype? It's the latter, and it's either 1) biased or 2) bought and paid news.
Lest we forget, it's not the news, it's the reaction. We had yesterday's late reversal, and today's action wasn't inspiring, unless you had some energy or gold shares. I was fortunate enough to have both and hope that I can remain in sync with the market using my combinations of 'tells' and 'dynamics'. Breadth was poor today, and neither the 'betas' or the 'financials' got much love today
|
| |
|
