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A Couple of 30,000 Foot Points
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
The market was up a lot on Thursday, flat on Friday and up a little today. This may or may not be important but regardless there are some big themes that should not be forgotten as the market does whatever it will do for the rest of the year and in 2007.

If you read the Barron's interview with Ned Davis this will look familiar as it is his comments that are behind this post.

Demand for oil is growing faster than new supply. In the interview, Davis cites similar per capita numbers that I have cited in the past that I got from Puru Saxena interviews on CNBC Asia. Per Davis, and similar to Saxena, the US uses 25.8 barrels of oil per year, China 1.8 and India 0.8. Is there any doubt that those last two numbers will go up?

This guarantees nothing but creates a clear path. Keep in mind this opinion has nothing to do with this year's driving season o



Pros and Cons of Someone Else's Mousetrap
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
JD Steinhilber is one of the regular contributors at ETF Investor. There is an article of his up about his taking more defensive action of late which includes changes to his model portfolios.

You can click on the image to see details.

While I am not 100% certain, I believe the ETFs in his ownership universe have been the same for many months. Perhaps the healthcare ETF is different.

The big plus to this allocation is that is is simple to assemble and follow. There are not a lot of moving parts and this strikes me as being very



Test Case
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
No doubt you have heard that the North Koreans fired some test missiles which has caused some reaction in various capital markets. According to a graphic on CNBC Asia, one of the missiles has a range of 3500-4500 km and could reach parts of Alaska.

Typically in the face of this type of scare US dollars rally, US treasuries rally, defense stocks do well, gold goes up and the Swiss franc might also draw some flow even if not from the US dollar.

While this is unlikely to have a lasting impact on markets it may make sense to study the reactions of different stock markets, assets classes, currencies, sectors and so on.

After 9/11 we were told to expect more attacks. I don't feel the need to devote space to how much danger the US may or may not be in at this point but certain things will go up in the face of a crisi



Whacky Stuff
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
Today is a weird day, no question about it. Ken Lay dies, North Korea is center stage, Texas tea is back above $75, the post from this morning was muted out by the ADP report and I was hoping to watch the World Cup match that starts soon.

It doesn't feel like there is a lot fear being expressed but the VIX is up 10%. Adam Warner doesn't seem too concerned but does not dismiss it completely either.

The market has felt heavy for a while and today does not help. I have been urging caution and advocating a relatively defense posture for a while now, without an extreme cash position. For now most accounts are still 75%-80% invested in equities, keep in mind the market is only down a little so far and may never go down a lot.

The trades on my radar have been on my radar for a while without any action taken yet are



Trouble 'round The Dinner Table?
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55

Here is an amusing note, my older brother Larry has thrown his hat into the blogosphere in the last few days. The site is called Millionaire-Now.

He has come out of the gate fast and furious with some good content covering CEFs, metals, portfolio composition and real estate. Larry has been in the business off and on for quite a while, knows a fair bit and it comes across in the writing. He also draws on opinion and expertise from a lot of other folks for the posts he has put up so far.

Perhaps we can have some sibling rivalry. Mom likes his site better, dad mine. Larry runs faster but I can bench press more weight. Ha ha ha.


 

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