Trading Systems blogs

As a follow-up to the previous post about percentage gains I made up the following poll: (Edit: to be clear, I'm not talking about annualized gains over multiple years. Just a one-time, one year return.)

Second Edit: Apparently the highest level on the poll, 200% is just mediocre to some. My bad. Feel free to leave a comment if your 'spectacular' level is above 200%.

Watchlist for July 5, 2006
at 2006-07-09 19:42:49

On Monday the indices floated higher on very little volume. The S&P and Dow broke above their 50-day moving averages. Given the importance of those moving averages I would have expected the indices to give those gains back. This morning's weakness is being blamed on the North Korea missile situation but I think this pullback had to happen because of Monday's low volume move. As I type this QQQQ is below Monday's low and SPY is right at Monday's low.

For those who took Monday's poll, I've posted the results.

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent 'Chart Reading' posts for some potential swing candidates.

Potential day trades:

(From July 5, 2006 Stock Market Recap
at 2006-07-09 19:42:49

I don't think too much should be made of today's selling. The S&P and Dow simply gave back Monday's ill-gotten, stupidly low-volume gains. Things were a bit worse on the Nasdaq which gave back a portion of its post-Fed announcement rally. It threatened to slip back into that fun June trading range today but was able to bounce off the top of the range. The Russell also gave up Monday's gains as well as a portion of last Friday's gains, which I think were all due to its rebalancing. So basically the indices, except the Nasdaq, are back to their Thursday, post-Fed rally levels.

The Nasdaq also stands out from most of the other indices in that it's not stuck between its 50 and 200-day moving averages. The Dow, S&P 500 and Russell are in what I like to call no-man's land -- they're under their 50 DMAs (intermediate-term bearish) and above their 200 DMAa (longer-term bullish). Breaks of either average ~~will~~ should be very important.

Watchlist for July 6, 2006
at 2006-07-09 19:42:49

They're trying to take 'em up this morning. I'll be watching how the S&P acts at its 50-day moving average (~1,274), which should be at least some resistance. Don't forget the oil inventory report gets released at 10:30. Keep an eye on USO and the energy stocks.

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent 'Chart Reading' posts for some potential swing candidates.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

OPWV -26.5% (guides JunQ well below consensus; gets subpoenas regarding options; OpCo downgrade), OTEX -12% (guides; downgrade from tier-1 broker), JDAS -10.6% (provides Q2 guidance), SNRR -7.2% (announces Nasdaq delisting and informal SEC inquiry), PFCB -6.4% (guides below consensus), ESV -3.9% (light volume

...read more

Chart Request: Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO)
at 2006-07-09 19:42:49

I was asked, "If not now, what would be a good price to initiate a long position in FRO." I wish I could answer that question but I can't. I don't see any obvious support on the chart right now. If I were looking to buy it I'd simply wait for it to cool off a bit by pulling back or consolidating. I'd look for stochastic to at least drop into neutral territory and then I'd try to find an entry point which would allow me to place a stop close by. I don't know at what price that might occur. It's just one of those things that I'd know when I saw it.