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Dynamics Time - Sunday Best
at 2005-12-12 18:19:45
Educational use only. Never intended as advice. "First above all, to thine own self be true." - Shakespeare
The most important message that I have to carry for myself is 'believe what you see,' although be prepared to change.
First, just to share a bit, 'what I'm listening to'. I subscribe to Napster, and there's always something spectacularly good (or bad) to listen to. The Trans-Siberian Orchestra has some fantastic, upbeat instrumentals, and for some off-beat sound, I enjoy 'The Killers' and 'Fountains of Wayne'. The kids recommend Green Day and Coldplay, and some of it really grows on you.
Everyone here knows the themes, and one is 'mean reversion'. No guarantees, just a look at where we are.
Big picture: "the race is not always to the swiftest or the battle to the strongest, but it pays to bet that way".
Weekly stochastics:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pc10!d20,2][vc60][iUp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pc10!d20,2][vc60][iUp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$RUT,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pc10!d20,2][vc60][iUp14,3,3!Lb14]&pref=G
NYSE point and figure bullish percentage charts: http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$BPNYA
Put-call ratio (21-day): http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm sell signal
Up close and personal
Stochastics oversold:
SPX 14%
NDX 21%
RUT 13%
Commodity Channel Index:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pc50!d20,2][vc60][iUp14,3,3!Ld20]&pref=G
Volatility Index:
VXO (11.49) ten day average 11.35, 200 day average 12.59
Stocks above ten day average: SPX 55%, NDX 47%, RUT 63%
Proprietary oversold statistics: SPX 11%, NDX 16%, RUT 9%
Proprietary investigational combined maximally overbought statistics: SPX 10 stocks, NDX zero stocks, Russell 2000 42 stocks, ETFs 4 stocks
Miscellaneous screens:
ETF > 400,000 shares daily 44
ETF > 400,000 proprietary oversold 1
ETF NR7 (volatility expansion candidates) 7 HHH, SWH, FEZ, OIH, IBB, LQD, EFA (I never, ever FADE these unless they reverse beyond the prior takeout high or low)
Landry 'Long' Base Screen: 1316
Landry 'Short' Base Screen: 69 (extreme low)
Short scan ideas screen : 93 (extreme low)
Okay, so you get the idea. Stocks and markets are overbought on the weekly level and less so on the daily level. Emblematic of today's environment is the tranformation of James Cramer from Wall Street manager and analyst to the contemporary version of 'Crazy Eddie.' Cramer's calls remind me of the old Rukeyser Wall Street Week, just on 'broadcast' speed.
Former Harvard classmate J.C. has taken on stature of messianic proportions to another figure with the J.C. initials. Different ideas flourish in different times, and the manic approach meshes well with bubble sentiment.
I'll leave you with a resource always worth contemplating, the estimable Marc Faber whose independent (not mean) streak runs counter to the herd. http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/indexmarketcoms.htm
Finally, congrats to the Twins. http://www.boston.com/sports/schools/allscholastics/fall2005/volleyball/
Good trading and great risk management to all.
Ron
Blog Source - http://www.ronsen.blogspot.com/atom.xml
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