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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Fisher says U.S. stocks undervalued 39-pct, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 12:10 PM
at 2006-03-22 12:07:11

So I’m watching Bloomberg TV interview Ken Fisher, a northern California money manager and Forbes columnist whom Forbes magazine ranks as about the 750th wealthiest person in the world. Fisher apparently manages $30 billion in private capital. He says U.S. stocks are undervalued 39-pct simply because the Earnings Yield is so much greater than long-term cost of capital.

Gee, I guess a year ago the U.S. equity market was 139-pct undervalued, when costs were lower and earnings yields higher. And with a cost of capital at virtually zero, Japanese stocks must be 339-pct undervalued.

When Ken Fisher looked the TV audience in the eye and said authoritatively that this market would keep on moving higher and higher, based on earnings yield, I wondered if we could take that to the bank.

In any event, there were a lot of people who bought his story. At the time of the interview, the Dow was flat and a half hour or so later it’s up almost +50 points.

Traders seem to want to hear a good story. Apparently they don’t want to think it through.


p.s., It's now three hours later and traders have thought it through. The Dow is no longer enjoying the +50 point Fisher bump, but is now underwater by -42 points.

I'm glad my readers listen to me and not some gazillionaire who manages $30 billion.



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