Well, this is the week that many investors have been waiting for. The Federal Reserve will meet this week, and raising short-term rates to 5.25% is a given. The wildcard out there is will the Fed pause after a .25bps move, wait until August to pause after raising rates another .25bps, or have the guts (or stupidity) to raise rates .50bps and stop.

The first scenario is a lock because market rates have already risen, and the Fed never fights market rates.

The economic numbers are mixed. Durable orders fell, but when you remove the volatile transportation component, there was still a healthy gain of .7%. Transportation accounted for the biggest decline in orders falling 18%.

The Leading Economic Indicator fell 0.6%, but housing starts rebounded for the first time this year.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which designs indexes that help predict inflationary pressures in the economy, said that the future inflation gauge (FIG) for the U.S. fell slightly in May. The May reading came in at 121.8 down slightly from April’s 122.0 reading, but this number is significantly below the peak numbers of October.

That's enough of the economic "shell game". Now, let’s get to the index that we all can relate to. The BAHI (Back At Home Index).

Of course I made this up, but there is no better indicator of future events than what is going on around you, and what other people are doing. This is my favorite index. This is how we were able to accurately predict the current inflation problem that many on the financial channels were saying didn't exist 6 months ago.