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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Viewer Right About Housing
at 2006-09-01 22:48:29

A viewer posted this comment after I posted the insider buys in USG by Warren Buffett;

Hmmmmmm. Over this week, I have read a lot of articles indicating that this is a good time to start to get your feet wet in the hommies as well.

y, I don't think we are even halfway through the housing collapse. Things, I suspsect, will get much worse before they start to get better. And note that we are within striking distance of recent highs on quite a few averages. With this in mind, I think I will hold off.

I do agree that the housing debachle is just beginning. At the moment, real estate sales are down. The time to go bargain hunting in the sector is when you read in the paper that home prices have fallen 25-50%.

Like the NASDAQ in 2000-2002, many brokers couldn't take the pain and left the business. Over the past 5 years everyone wanted to be a real estate agent. When realtors begin to look for other means of employment, we will know that we have reached the bottom.

We may see a 10-15% rally in the homebuilders once the Fed signals that they are finished. There has been so much negative press lately that the arm chair experts (who are late to the party) have begun shorting the sector.



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