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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Is There A Hyphen In Anal Retentive?
at 2005-12-04 19:51:27

This is a very subtle joke, and I can't recall where I am stealing it from.

There is a very human desire to want to continually tweak portfolios, give up on something when it does not appear to be working or go after something that is really working.

I am clearly guilty on at least one level. I have recently done two very short term trades that were very speculative, zero-sum types of trades. I don't do this very often but if I have a moment of clarity I act. This happens four or five times a year, maybe.

What brings this up is the recent run in the dollar and my overweight, personally and for clients, to foreign stocks. The dollar had a major move up, major. In the last few days some of that has been given back. The Kiwi is almost back to $0.71 after trading with a $0.67 handle, the loonie is at C$1.16 after being at C$1.19 as two examples.

With the recent dollar strength I am a little surprised that my foreign holdings aren't in worse shape, they have done well this week I should note.

My overweight to foreign stems from a belief in long term trends not what will happen this quarter. Through this move I never thought about reducing foreign but I was preparing for a bad quarter (which happens to all portfolio managers now and then) but it is possible that won't be the case.

If you are managing your own portfolio for some long term goal, it makes very little sense to get too worked up over a bad month for a theme you have in your portfolio.

The ability to do this comes down to not succumbing to emotion. I do better using simple logic. Logic tells me that foreign exposure makes a lot of sense for the foreseeable future and in the short run most foreign holdings will pay outsized dividends.

This is a meaty, get in my head (and listen for the echo?) type of post.


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