Well, so much for the utility of the ADP number as a predictor of the gubment number.

The report was really bad, weak growth plus a high increase in wages. This report of course now means that the Fed absolutely, positively will--wait, it probably means nothing.

Whatever the report indicates for the Fed could easily be reversed by some other number that comes before the next Fed meeting.

The last time I wrote about the Fed being data dependent a reader left a comment asking whether the Fed is always data dependent, implying that the newness of the term is silly. The reader was of course correct.

I have tried to encourage a line of thought that is not so obsessed with each data point and the Fed. I think it is important to follow and try to understand the data and the Fed but there are not too many investment decisions that need to be triggered as a specific reaction to the Fed.

History tells us they will go a little too far and then stop. They are probably very close to the end but that could change, I suppose. Someone on TV today will bring up stagflation as a possibility; maybe it will be Peter Bookvar.

I think we are a long way from that being conclusive but it makes sense to being on the lookout, higher wages (ie inflation), fewer jobs (ie less growth), just be aware is all I am saying.