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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Whacky Stuff
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55

Today is a weird day, no question about it. Ken Lay dies, North Korea is center stage, Texas tea is back above $75, the post from this morning was muted out by the ADP report and I was hoping to watch the World Cup match that starts soon.

It doesn't feel like there is a lot fear being expressed but the VIX is up 10%. Adam Warner doesn't seem too concerned but does not dismiss it completely either.

The market has felt heavy for a while and today does not help. I have been urging caution and advocating a relatively defense posture for a while now, without an extreme cash position. For now most accounts are still 75%-80% invested in equities, keep in mind the market is only down a little so far and may never go down a lot.

The trades on my radar have been on my radar for a while without any action taken yet are to add a food stock with a high yield, add one of the currency ETFs, perhaps the TIP ETF while reducing a little more industrial exposure. If things get really bad I would be comfortable with reducing net equity exposure a lot with a double short fund. We are not there yet. I think another rally like in late April/early May where people seem to forget the concerns that exist would be a catalyst to add the double short fund in a significant way.


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