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News for February, 2007

   
 

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friday update
at 2007-02-06 15:26:24

SHORT TERM: stocks closed mixed after testing support.
The market opened higher, but quickly turned south in what appeared to be choppy trading, but clearly 5 waves down from yesterdays highs on the hourly charts. After completed that short term pattern the markets rallied a bit into the close. If this 5 waves down completes an irregular top, the market should resume its uptrend. If the 5 waves down is a sign of a impending more significant correction, the recent lows will not hold. Unfortunately, the market has given us a clue, but still leaves us with an inconclusive outcome going into the weekend. Tuesday, Q4 GDP will be released, and the FED starts a two day Open Market Committee meeting. If the uptrend is in Bernanke's hands we may not get a resolution until thursday. With the OEW uptrend intact, I would anticipate a more dovish statement from the FED. Maybe FED member Lacker, who has been very hawkish against inflation, will finally join in with the consensus. Commodities and Crude are in bear markets. Only wage inflation, which is the positive result of a solid ongoing economy, is left. In Feb. when the Core CPI/PPI will be released, they will be a marked improvement over the past several years, reflecting the selloff in Crude and Commodities. For today, Bonds were down just under 1/4 point, Crude traded $1.25 higher, but Gold declined $2.50 again trading on its own merits. At the close the SPX/DOW were 0.10% lower, but the NDX/NAZ were mixed. This indecisiveness in the market is turning the rest of my gray hair white. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.   


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