Green Fire Update
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
 A few weeks ago we had a 35 acre forest fire near my house called the Green Fire. I mentioned that we hike through that area a lot. The trail opened back up recently and today was my first time hiking through since the fire.
This picture is by a burnt out juniper tree.
I'll have a post that is market related up shortly.  read more
The Big Picture For The Week Of July 2, 2006
at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
Barron's has an article up (sub required) that wonders whether or not there are too many ETFs. Regardless of your opinion this is a good question to ask every so often.
A recurring theme to my commentary here has been that ETF offerings will allow access to more parts of the market, there will be both useless and useful products that come along and that we should all continue to keep tabs on new products as they come out.
WisdomTree just came out with 20 new ETFs. I have mentioned them a couple of time but have not really delved into them yet. I am convinced that their products are innovative, relative what is already out there. But I cannot imagine that all 20 ETFs will measure up to WisdomTree's own criteria for success. I'm not sure that even ten will be a hit but I think this
Bonds Now? at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
A reader left this question about buying bonds.
I have a question about bonds. Is now a good time? One would get the benefit of interest plus possible cap appreciation. If you sense that the year will be negative to flat, as you mentioned, why not hunker down in a high yield bond fund? Some bond funds I looked at are down 2-3 percent ytd and paying well over 6. With six months left, that's 3 percent plus possible appreciation. The possible part is the catch. If we go into recession, as you fear, then would these funds be in trouble?
Funny because I had a similar discussion with a client over the weekend.
Is now a good time? Bonds are an asset class and belong in diversified portfolios one way or another. An aggressive investor might use fixed income to manage volatility and enhance yield and a conservative investor might weight them more heavily to provid
Greg Mankiw's Blog at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
Greg Mankiw's Blog
I may not be literally the last to know that Professor Mankiw has a blog but I am close.
An idea I have been writing about for ages, related to the blogosphere, is that do-it-yourselfers would gain access to better information and commentary as the blogosphere evolves.
This blog will be a case in point.
A Couple of 30,000 Foot Points at 2006-07-09 19:47:55
The market was up a lot on Thursday, flat on Friday and up a little today. This may or may not be important but regardless there are some big themes that should not be forgotten as the market does whatever it will do for the rest of the year and in 2007.
If you read the Barron's interview with Ned Davis this will look familiar as it is his comments that are behind this post.
Demand for oil is growing faster than new supply. In the interview, Davis cites similar per capita numbers that I have cited in the past that I got from Puru Saxena interviews on CNBC Asia. Per Davis, and similar to Saxena, the US uses 25.8 barrels of oil per year, China 1.8 and India 0.8. Is there any doubt that those last two numbers will go up?
This guarantees nothing but creates a clear path. Keep in mind this opinion has nothing to do with this year's driving season o
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