Something has seemed weird to me about the situation with Research In Motion (RIMM). Over the last year I have blogged a couple of times about not buying RIMM because there are plenty of stocks with the potential to double that do not take on the shutdown risk that RIMM takes.
But as the news has unfolded combined with some of the analysis I have heard has lead me to agree that a shutting down of the service seems remote because that would hurt a lot of consumers. I think that the door is now open to a shutdown might mean a low is in place. The only thing worse than a shut down is the visible threat of one.
This is clearly speculative, probably contrarian and not something I am doing for clients. I expect I am just renting the stock. I bought a little personally in extended hours trading last night at $61.20.
Here is the process: A stock a I've watched for a long time partially prices in something bad that
ETF Investor » Powershares to Launch Water Resources ETF (Proposed ticker: PHO) at 2005-12-04 19:51:27
ETF Investor » Powershares to Launch Water Resources ETF
This is an important investment theme. I first heard about water as an investment theme in the late 1990s but never did anything about it (I'm not even sure I missed anything). About a year ago I wrote a piece for Motley Fool about Suez (SZE) which is a low impact water and China play.
One reader in particular has emailed me a couple of times about this theme and I have had very little to offer. The technology is foreign to me to assessing one particular stock and then buying it might be hard to do with client money.
I am interested in this one and plan to learn about it and write more about it.
SZE is a client holding for the one account that has an all-foreign mandate.
....As A School Girl at 2005-12-04 19:51:27
That's how giddy the market feels. Despite my general skeptical outlook right now and having a little too much cash it looks like I am more than capturing the effect in the equity market today so this is not sour grapes.
But why isn't anyone at least asking if this could be a blow-off day that means a top? I certainly don't know the answer but I'd like to hear someone pipe up. Where's Michael Metz, oh wait is he bullish now?
As a follow up to this morning, I sold my RIMM at 63.74. It was exactly right for about 15 minutes and now the stock is up around $65. I got my trade and exited the position. I don't care what I leave on the table. Looking back can be unwise.
S+P's ETF Portfolio at 2005-12-04 19:51:27BusinessWeek had this
article about S+P's ETF portfolio. The portfolio itself has a couple of interesting wrinkles and the actual article makes a couple of good points. First, here's the portfolio;
SPDRS (
SPY) 35%
Mid Cap SPDR (
MDY) 6%
iShares Small Cap (
IJR) 4%
iShares EAFE (
EFA) 9%
iShares Japan (
EWJ)
Is There A Hyphen In Anal Retentive? at 2005-12-04 19:51:27
This is a very subtle joke, and I can't recall where I am stealing it from.
There is a very human desire to want to continually tweak portfolios, give up on something when it does not appear to be working or go after something that is really working.
I am clearly guilty on at least one level. I have recently done two very short term trades that were very speculative, zero-sum types of trades. I don't do this very often but if I have a moment of clarity I act. This happens four or five times a year, maybe.
What brings this up is the recent run in the dollar and my overweight, personally and for clients, to foreign stocks. The dollar had a major move up, major. In the last few days some of that has been given back. The Kiwi is almost back to $0.71 after trading with a $0.67 handle, the loonie is at C$1.16 after being at C$1.19 as two examples.
With the recent dollar strength I am a little surprised that my foreign
