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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


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The Santa Clause Rally Begins
at 2005-12-04 19:53:37

Bullfight_4

  • Do you SEE and FEEL the emotion?

  • December's trading calendar

  • If the clear majority expects a pullback, will it come?

  • Monster jobs!

  • Chain store sales

  • Is the consumer still Price Performance
    at 2005-12-04 19:53:37

    FingerscrossedThe herd is getting a wee bit nervous as we head to the final hour of trading and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a very strong close so I can put a small index short in play.

    Part of the difficulty of the day is separating the stocks that are moving higher just because they're part of the pack or because they deserve to be higher and the market is only starting to realize that. As a general rule, if you weren't inclined to buy a day or so ago and now feel compelled to do so just because the stock is moving higher today you may want to stop and reevaluate. Price performance is important, but it isn't everything. Good luck into the closing bell.



    Go With The Flow
    at 2005-12-04 19:53:37

    Billions of dollars flow in and the market goes up. Sometimes it really is that simple especially on the first day of a new month.

    Z64_1

    The bulls proved they remain in charge and are ready to rumble as market pros get excited about those end-of-the-year bonuses. I'm looking for an opportunity to take the other side of the trade, but I'm still not seeing it so I refuse to force it. Instead, I've opted to ride along using relatively tight risk parameters and highly liquid long positions (i.e. high-volume etfs). I don't like it, but you have to take what the market gives you sometimes. Like usual, overthinking this rally is a recipe for underperformance. It's all about perception and emoti



    Well Above Average
    at 2005-12-04 19:53:37

    Good morning. Premarket futures are positive as investors mull the jobs report which reported a rise of 215,000 jobs.

    Now with that report behind us and Dow 11K is within spitting distance, will the bulls have enough power to push us higher? As the following chart shows, this 4Q rally is already well above average as money inflows increase to the best levels of the year.

    Wellaboveaverage

    Unlike previous moments in the past year when sentiment surveys showed a high level of optimism and t



    Can You Handle The Pain?
    at 2005-12-04 19:53:37

    Like all traders, I use my share of oscillators to gauge when the market is overbought and oversold. I also take my cue from the stocks themselves.

    Suffice it to say, at best case I'm finding scores of stocks that look ready for a short-to-medium term consolidation phase. At worst, a major drawdown. In fact, even if you think these stocks are going to continue their winning ways over the long-term, on balance you should anticipate some significant short-term pain. Even in bull markets, winners will typically revisit their uptrend lines. After the rally we've just had and with emotions so high, I think many of us forget that rule.

    Below you'll find some standout examples of stocks that have indeed seen impressive gains, yet at best appear susceptible to short-term pain. People always ask me what I mean by risk versus reward - well, in each



 

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