PIMCO's Paul McCulley lays out a surprisingly stark bitchslapping smackdown on Easy Al Greenspan. First, he quotes the Maestro:In perhaps what must be the greatest irony of economic policymaking, success at stabilization carries its own risks. Monetary policy–in fact, all economic policy–to the extent that it is successful over a... New Home Sales Data: Don't rely On It Either at 2005-12-04 19:53:36
Here we go again: Yesterday's New Home Sales data of plus 13% month over month was . . . how shall I politely phrase this . . . somewhat questionable. It seemed like such an outlier, that I had to dig into the details, especially given all the other non-confirming... WSJ: Holiday Sales Numbers Don't Add Up at 2005-12-04 19:53:36
The WSJ agrees that one cannot determine actual sales from a sentiment report:Here's how the NRF's polling company, BIGResearch LLC, arrived at that estimate: The company has gathered an online panel of consumers who answer regular surveys about their buying habits, elections and other matters. The company emailed panelists on... Why I'm Bullish on Retail Sales at 2005-12-04 19:53:36
Someone asked me how I can believe Holiday sales increases can be in the 3 to 4% range when I don't buy the NRF data. The answer is twofold -- I am interested in correcting their horrific statistical error, and returning expectations back to baseline (rather than saying Xmas will... New Column up at Real Money (12/01/05): Home Sales Data: Lots of Huffing and Puffing at 2005-12-04 19:53:36
An expanded version of yesterday's commentary is up on Real Money, titled Home Sales Data: Lots of Huffing and Puffing. You will no doubt recognize many of these points disucssed previously. Here's an excerpt: Tuesday's new-home sales data of plus 13% month over month was such an outlier that I...
