Well, there it is, trading in a range of $550-560 oz.
Some of the pundits tell me $600 is the next stop on
a glorious upward ride. Wow, and here I am thinking
that I could eke out a decent case for gold at $450
oz. based on commercial demand / supply/ extraction
costs. I even thought it would sell off sharply over
the first four or five months of 2006. I know there
are concerns that oil supplies could be disrupted, but
when I look at that market, I can make out a good case
for oil at $40-50 bl., not $60+. No comfort there either.
looks like the same guys are in that market, too.
When I look at the gold charts, I see a sitting duck,
with intermediate term weekly MACD rolling over from very
high levels, yr/yr price momentum very high, Wilder
ADX closing in favor of internal supply. But, a
big drop has not come.
So, for now, I am consigning gold to the "out of my
league" category, to b
ABC Corrections: AAPL and GOOG at 2006-03-22 12:07:00It was only a couple of weeks ago that I posted a question to myself about a tweezer top seen on the weekly chart of AAPL.
Since then, it’s been down.
On the daily charts, we can see two really good examples of the largest retracement pattern around: The ABC Correction. This is an insane pullback, but oddly, people do step up to buy on occasion.
It will be interesting to see if the bounce - if it comes it should start now - hits resistance overhead or not.
For GOOG, resistance is at a very obvious $400ish…
…while it’s at around $71ish for AAPL.
Thoughts on the Kelly Criterion at 2006-03-22 12:07:00After reading Size Matters, I fired an email off to The Quant, who has been sleep-deprived since his new son’s arrival in late-December. Still, what he can do with one brain cell may certainly be much more than my entire brain, so here it is.
Teresa’s Question
Hope you’ve had some sleep lately! ;-) I have a quick question.
A friend called today after reading the attached and asked me about the standard practice of people plugging in the batting average of their trading system as “the edge”. Somehow, I think this is incorrect.
For example, Thorp’s edge was in identifying discrepancies between two types of securities - classic arbitrage - and being able to lock in/hedge the position from the start. The outcomes were quantifiable before putting on the trades. He was able to do this with number crunching when computers w
The Global Family
at 2006-03-22 12:07:00
In December, I wrote about The Genographic Project that is underway, and how we can each support and participate in the study to find our deep genetic lineage.
Henry Louis Gates Jr. (standing), Harvard scholar and series host, and Quincy Jones, music entrepreneur, examine a document, created by Jones, outlining his family lineage. Photo by Graham Judd.
Last night, I came upon the most amazing four-part PBS series called African American Lives, hosted by Henry Louis Gates, Jr., W.E.B. Du Bois professor of the Humanities and chair of African and African American Studies at Harvard University. Presumably timed to air during Black History Month, the people involved did a round of fascinating interviews at
The Sentiment Cycle
at 2006-03-22 12:07:00
You might be wondering why we need to take a detour to discuss The Sentiment Cycle. Surely mechanical trading is designed to do away with emotions, right?
Yes, a good trading system helps us stay the course and do the right thing. It prevents us from chasing performance, from loading the boat at the top. A good trading system does not allow us to experience the trauma of puking at the bottom after a long downtrend by virtue of using stops and position sizing. A good trading system frees us from our worst fears - the fear of losing, and the fear of missing out.
If you make a bad trade and you have money management you are really not in much trouble. However, if you miss a good trade there is nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any regularity you’re finished. — William Eckhardt
Buying high and selling low is not the way to go, but human nature makes it hard to resist doing it because we are simp
