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monday update
at 2007-02-06 15:26:24
SHORT TERM: After a positive morning stocks close mixed.
Stocks opened the week mixed, rallied until 1:00, then gave it all back within an hour hitting the lows for the day at 2:00. Then rallied a bit into the close. A relatively quiet day with a positive bias. Bonds were down a few ticks, Crude off 30 cents and Gold off $2.00. At the close the SPX/DOW closed within +/- 0.10% of fridays close, adn the NDX/NAZ rose 0.15%. Lots of economic data this week. Tuesday kicks it off with another Consumer sentiment reading at 10:00. Wednesday before the open Q4 GDP, at 10:00 the Jan. Chicago PMI, and the FED's short term rate decision at 2:15 in the afternoon. Important day! Thursday before the open is the Jan. Jobless claims and Dec. Core PCE, then at 10:00 the Jan. ISM. Finally friday has the Jan. Non-farm payrolls. Something for all the markets. Should be a wild week. Short term, as soon as the market got a little overbought today around 1:00, it quickly pulled bac
tuesday morning at 2007-02-06 15:26:24SHORT TERM: stocks gap up slightly at the open.
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, with only China's SSEC sheding a few points. Europe came in about 0.30% higher, and our stock index futures had a positive bias going into the open. At the open, stocks gapped up slightly, but quickly closed the gap before 10:00. At 10:00 the Consumer Conference board announced Jan. Consumer sentiment to be the highest it has been in nearly five years: at 110.3. Considering the deflated real estate market and auto industry, this is a very positive reading in our consumer driven economy. It also illustrates the ever decreasing impact of manufacturing on the economy. Bonds are up a few ticks, Crude up 60 cents after it was reported that the Saudi's will again decrease production in the coming months, which they have been doing for about two years. Gold is up 60 cents and the Euro is on the rise. Technically, the market continues in a narrow trading range as it edges higher
tuesday update at 2007-02-06 15:26:24SHORT TERM: market manages to post some reasonable gains ahead of the GDP/FED tomorrow.
The market gapped up at the open this morning, but quickly eased back to fill that gap by 10:00. As the day progressed, the cyclicals moved higher despite the lagging tech sector, which made a lower low for the day at 1:00. And neglected, the sharp rally in Crude, which rose to nearly $57, the area from which it broke down earlier in the month. Bonds were up a few ticks ahead of the FED, Gold was up $3.50, and the Euro also rose. The NYA (NY Composite index) made gradual progress throughout the day, indicative of the cyclical rally. Just as Apple traded flat to lower most of the day, indicative of the action in the tech sector. If you recall, over the weekend I suggested to observe both of these this week, for signs of the market's direction. At the close the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 0.20%. Tomorrow the markets receive a virtual worldwind of economic data. T
wednesday morning at 2007-02-06 15:26:24SHORT TERM: market starts this busy day lower.
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower, with China's volatile SSEC dropping almost 5%. Europe came in 0.20% lower, as our stock index futures were pressured as the trading day began. At 8:30 the Commerce dept. reported Q4 GDP at a higher than expected 3.5%, and 3.4% for 2006 verses 3.2% in 2005. Consumer prices fell 0.8%, the first quarterly decline in 45 years (1961), and the largest drop in 52 years. The Core PCE rose 2.1%, slightly above the FED's 2% comfort zone. The Labor dept. reported employer labor costs rose 0.8% in Q4, and 3.3% in 2006 verses 3.5% in 2005. What all this means is that growth continues at a good pace, inflation is in check, and labor costs are not a problem. The FED is running out of things to be concerned about. Ahead of the conclusion to the FED's two day meeting, the market sold the good news. The NDX took the opportunity to retest the recent lows, while the other indices remain w
wednesday update at 2007-02-06 15:26:24SHORT TERM: FED leaves rates unchanged, market soars.
Stocks opened lower this morning responding to selling overnight, despite the positive news of Q4 GDP, which came in higher than expected. The market bottomed shortly after the open, as the NDX retested its recent lows. Then rallied into 11:00, and went into a holding pattern until the FED announcement was released at 2:15. By unanimous vote, for the first time, the FED decided to leave rates unchanged, as was widely expected. The wording of the statement, however, was far more positive than it has been in a long time. The market reacted immediately by rallying strongly. The SPX/DOW/NYA/R2K all made new bull market highs. For all but the SPX these were also new all time highs. Bonds rallied nearly 3/4 point, Crude rallied 95 cents (short squeeze?), Gold rallied $8.50, and the Euro was strong as well. With these new highs in the various indices, the probability of the SPX hitting 1462 in the very near future
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