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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Overbought . . .or not
at 2005-12-12 18:19:39

I'm starting to hear a lot of rumblings about this market being overbought. This lead me to look for stocks that have made recent "V" moves (steep upward rises with little or no pullbacks) to short. AAPL turned out to be a great candidate. Shorted at 69.37 and it closed at 68.10. I'll look to sell on weakness tomorrow, while placing a "mental" stop to cover at 68.40.

I sold my position in YHOO for a 1.67% loss. I'll look to go long if it continues to fall.

For the next few days I'll be looking for shorting opportunities with quick holds before the market resumes it's uptrend.

StockWatch:
FFIV (Short): broke downtrend and could fill gap. Stop around 54.
BIDU (Long): Watch for breakout at 84.
NTRI (Long): In solid uptrend at high end of bollinger band. Look for pullback into middle of bollinger band, unless their are signs of trend reversal. RSI consistently overbought. Hot diet stock.
CHK (Long or Short): Long if breaks downtrend line in 29-30 range. Otherwise still in downtrend for short play with tight stop.
MCD: Tight consolidation in 32-34 range. Long if breaks 34.25 on high volume.

Look at last week's charts and update what's still in play. Add TTWO and ERTS (Gamers)

Market Notes:
Michael Panzner, found on thekirkreport.com, notes that the stockmarket has risen 19 out of the last 25 Decembers (1.52 % average return) and that the best returns are reserved for those who were in the market 20 days before the end of December.

DOW 11,000 is proving to be a strong resistance. Big drop last time it got close.

Lots of talk of the market being overbought. Look for correction this week, then a return of the uptrend.




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