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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


 
Banking on It?
at 2005-11-12 23:55:02

Educational use only. Never intended as advice.

Short report tonight as I just got back from the Massachusetts Division II North semifinal playoff. Melrose topped Arlington Catholic to advance to the finals Saturday. My twin daughters both were named All-State in volleyball this week, so it's pretty cool. They didn't get any volleyball talent from me. Hey, it's not California or Florida, but still a great honor.

Meanwhile, speaking of 'on a roll' the Bank Index broke through 102 and the RKH has risen about 12% in just 21 session.

The SPX now has 75% of its stocks over their ten day average and only 6% oversold by stochastics. Fear is receding fast as the VXO is extended south of its ten day average by about 10 percent as well.

All 19 RKH component are overbought by the criteria of 'above their ten-day average' and the RKH is almost 6 percent extended from the close of 13 days ago.

So, it's a v-bottom ramp for the financials, and resistance is nearby. I elected to take some defined risk-RKH puts (with implied volatility of 13%) and some BKX puts today. With interest rates rising, paradoxically risk has vaporized. We'll know soon enough.

Miscellaneous:

Oversold ETFs include OIH, XLE, and IYE. The buying fervor for the energy space has waned temporarily, temporally associated with Congress' investigation of the oil company profits. Never fear, the energy space has some friends in high places, and cold weather's coming (not advice).

Good trading and great risk management to all.


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