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Interpreting Bernanke-speak, Tuesday, March 21, 2006, 7:08 AM
at 2006-03-22 12:07:11

Without doubt, in my mind at least, Ben Bernanke may be the most intellectually brilliant of U.S. central bankers to lead the Fed. That’s good because these are trying times, and the future is going to become even more challenging for Americans.

So, even though Bernanke is believed to speak more directly than his predecessor, his rhetoric will become an important piece of work for all of us to understand.

Last evening, Bernanke delivered a short speech to the Economic Club of New York. Today, it will be the subject of much discussion and spin by Wall Street. Here is a link to the speech.

After re-reading his conclusion, I gather that he’d like to see Fed policy a matter of “trust me, you’re in good hands”. You see, he’s saying maybe the old indicators work, and maybe they don’t.

In my mind, that’s acceptable – but only on one condition, which is that policy changes are signalled clearly to all of us at the same time. I believe that Alan Greenspan misled the public in mid-September when he held talks with America’s biggest banks and, with them, began a process of accelerating money growth, at the same time not informing the public of that policy change.

You see, it's not the policy so much as it is a matter we all understand what that policy is. We need that information clearly communicated to us so we can make good strategic and tactical trading decisions.

Going short the Financial sector ETF (XLF) six months early was a disaster for me. Nobody likes to be misled.

Why bother reading FOMC minutes if there is no disclosure of the Fed’s intention to intervene in capital markets in a material way?

Although I was a supporter of the Greenspan Fed over his many years there, I have to now say that his last six months in office did nothing to distinguish the man. I hope we get to trust Bernanke more.

Based on this speech, it seems that what Bernanke is saying, i.e., “trust me”, is going to be in doubt until the new man proves himself. I’m saying, “I’ll trust you as long as you act appropriately in disclosing policy decisions in a timely manner.”



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Last 10 Posts
   
  - Are Producer Prices really declining? Mon., Mar. 20, 2006, 4:35 PM

  - USD weakness explained, Mon., Mar. 20, 2006, 4:54 PM

  - Interpreting Bernanke-speak, Tuesday, March 21, 2006, 7:08 AM

  - PPI devil is always in the details, Tuesday, March 21, 2006, 8:36 AM

  - Mid-East central banks said to be selling USD, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 11:54 AM

  - Fisher says U.S. stocks undervalued 39-pct, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 12:10 PM

  - SLV: ETF coming soon to your portfolio, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 2:51 PM

  - Query about Forestry stocks, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 4:09 PM

  - Tough day at the office for Ken Fisher, Tues., Mar. 21, 2006, 5:04 PM

  - What’s the Fed’s "NewBank" all about?, Wed., Mar. 22, 2006, 5:14 AM

   


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