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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

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Market Comments From Our Friends
at 2006-01-05 09:08:31

I wanted to give you some opinions from some investment advisors I really respect. This is not to say that I always agree with them, but it is a good idea to get your ideas from several sources. By doing this, you can comfortably arrive on an intelligent investment strategy for your accounts. Here are some of those opinions:

LOUIS NAVELLIER:(www.bluechipgrowth.com, www.navellieremerging.com, www.navellierglobal.com, www.navellierquantum.com)

The stock market is essentially on hold until we hear more from the Fed. More specifically, the market wants to know when the Fed will stop raising rates. In a typical environment, the Fed would never want to invert the yield curve, but I think we can all agree that today's economy is far from typical. Furthermore, Greenspan said at the Joint Economic Committee meeting in early December that he doesn't think the yield curve is a "foolproof indicator of economic weakness". In fact, he said it can be "quite misleading".

hat the Fed has been targeting the housing bubble and the 'carry' trade (when institutions and hedge funds borrow at the short end and lend at the long end). The carry trade is now essentially dead, so the Fed has succeeded with that mission. There are also signs that the Fed has successfully let some air out of the housing bubble. New and existing home sales are dropping, inventories are rising, mortgage applications are down, and prices are either falling, or moderating.

The Fed's latest concern has been 'resource utilization,' which is the same thing as the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate drops below 5% on January 6, we will likely see more selling pressure in equities. If the rate holds 5%, we could see a rally.

On January 3, the Fed will release its minutes from the December FOMC meeting. The market will be looking for any clues that indicate the Fed is almost done raising rates. If the clues are there, the market could rally a bit before the employment report.



Blog Source - http://www.johnmugarian.com/index.rdf
 


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