Energy Prices Dominate Markets at 2006-01-05 09:08:31
Happy New Year to all! Before I get started, I would like to thank everyone for the kind words, and appreciation for what I do. Unfortunately when you have a "free" blog, or website, it is open to everyone and anyone. This potentially can create an opportunity for someone to express themselves in an inappropriate and disrespectful manner.
Sometime this year, I hope to have our Sector Rotation Newsletter available for subscribers. This will be a "paid" service, and I can give more detailed and actionable investment advice.
For the past three weeks, I have been working on the Sector Rotation Model to identify the best sectors for January 2006. In the Sector Rotation newsletter, I will make changes to the model to make sure that our investors are always in the best performing sectors.
2006 STOCK MARKET
For trend followers, 2005 was a very disappointing year. In the Stock Traders Almanac, they built a case for why years ending in "5" are normally positive. Of course, 2005 was historically very disappointing.
As 2005 came to a close, the indexes essentially went nowhere:
DJIA -.61%
S&P +3.00%
NASDAQ +1.37%
Since bouncing off the bear market markets lows from 2001-2002, the markets performance in 2004 and 2005 were essentially flat. 2006 looks to be the set up year for a new bull market.
The best scenario is a steep decline in the first 6-9 months of 2006, followed by a combination of events that could trigger a powerful rally into year-end. What could the catalyst for the new bull:
Energy Prices Decline- As the economy slows, demand for energy will soften, and so will the demand for raw materials.
Fed Reverse Course- the Federal Reserve not only stops raising rates, but reverse course, and begins lowering rates.
Blog Source - http://www.johnmugarian.com/index.rdf
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