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Problem Focused
at 2006-02-06 23:45:26

Educational use only. Never intended as advice.

In medicine, we do evaluations that are 'health maintenance' focused, and others that are 'problem focused.' In the interest of time, I'll try to make this the latter.

Field Position:

Longer-Term
NYSE Bullish Percent by point-and-figure 69% (overbought)
Mamis-Meisler 10 and 30 day averages of NYSE breadth: 204,300 (moderately overbought)
Stochastics: SPX weekly (79,74) overbought

Shorter-term
TRIN5 1.18 (mildly overbought-bullish)
VXO 12.33, 12.20 (ten day average) -yesterday made 8 period high and reversed
Stochastics oversold: SPX 27%, RUT 15% (getting bullish on SPX)
Proprietary: SPX oversold

When the short-term indicators are flashing 'green', then I'm going to focus more on finding long positions. I will only use counter-signal action using volatility band trades when this occurs.

ETFs active (> 400K shares) oversold (proprietary)
QQQQ 41.01-40.59
XLV 31.90-31.62 (assess impact of new Federal Budget)
EFA 62.36-61.89
XLP 23.28-23.13

Proprietary Oversold
MMM 71.30-70.99
DT 15.70-15.36
TIF 36.55-35.95
ADSK 36.10-35.18 (Mandelbrot -64)
XMSR 24.55-23.42 (Mandelbrot -64) long XMSR
YHOO 33.95-32.78 (Mandelbrot -50)
SYMC 16.97-16.57 (Mandelbrot -44)

Most overbought (Mandelbrot Inspired) These have the hardest to fall but marked momentum
ATI 53.86-50.84 Mandelbrot 164
BRCM 70.40-67.81 135
AMD 41.23-39.84 127
X 62.50-57.12 121
NUE 88.38-83.73 102

That's the lineup, mathematically speaking. Key index at support, with greater short-term risk (not advice) on the short side from the confluence on indicators.

Good trading and great risk management to all.





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