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Pity the Fool, the 'Greater Fool'
at 2006-02-06 23:45:28

Educational use only. Never intended as advice.

Periodically, usually when the market is greatly overbought, the market teaches the incurably optimistic a lesson - mean reversion. The 'Greater Fool' theory says (and recent markets have proven it), or implies that you need a greater fool to take the stock off your hands, especially an overvalued one.

Coming into today, I had a fully hedged position, and got a gift from CLWT (an oversold water stock), and I sold some of my IWM puts into the rally.

Weak days tend to end weakly and strong ones strongly, and the former has applied today. The cause? Some will say a productivity report, but does one number rule the market? Absolutely not. Those who had enjoyed this runup bolted to the sidelines (sideline play) waiting further guidance.

This is not fear, with a TRIN of 1.3 and VXO of barely teenage years.

Learn every day, and make the other guys and gals pay for their mistakes.


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