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Keys to the Kingdom
at 2006-02-06 23:45:28

Educational use only. Never intended as advice.

The "Plunge Protection Team" renamed by one hedge fund manager as the Price Management Team is out in force today, as predicted, in the wake of the Google fiasco.

Unfortunately for the market, maybe, I have proprietary sell signals (sell is not equivalent to short) on IWM, IWN, IWO, and others, and my mantra is going to be 'he who panics first panics best'.

Breadth has been mildly positive, TRIN checks in neutral at 0.96, and the financials are mildly negative. My son informs me that the futures market is pricing in a 40% chance of a rate rise as high as 5%. My view as a person who has never taken an economics course is:

1) The Fed raises rates to protect the dollar
2) The Fed is the principal source of inflation via monetary policy (wreckless monetary expansion)
3) The Fed pays lip service to fighting inflation (via rate hikes) while promoting inflation to minimize the impact of massive deficits, including spending that is 'off budget'

Market forces always rule in the end, but eventually this 'intervention' collapses. As Todd Harrison would say, "the difference between intervention and manipulation is communication." Moves like eliminating publication of M3 data tell you the answer.


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