This one's for Duru, who has just written another missive about the housing stocks. Last week he asked me:

Check out the chart on TOL. There was an up-trend from the bottom in February. That trend was broken earlier in April. Since then, there have been three strong up moves that have stopped cold at previous up-trend support. The fiddy has started turning upward during this time and up-volume is edging out down volume. I would love to see your chart analysis on this! In particular, is this bullish/bearish behavior? Or neutral?

It looks like the stock is trying to bottom yet it's beneath all of the major moving averages. Personally I'd be neutral on this stock -- it's not a clear short or long to me. But if I had to trade it I'd be looking for opportunities to short it. Here's the chart: