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thursday update: looking inside the wave
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26
While the market is having another 'kickoff the next advance' party: a powerful gap up opening, and plenty of follow thru. Pity those shorts of the last three days: see tuesday update. I've been examining this entire uptrend, thus far, using the 15 minute charts that I post. The daily bar charts can provide excellent information, but one needs to look within the daily activity to determine exactly what is going on. I'm going to list below every wave, from a micro perspective, for those interested: in learning EW, just following the uptrend, those doubters of the validity of EW, or even those amazed (such as myself) that investor psychology can actually be tracked on a piece of graph paper, nearly minute by minute. The uptrend thus far in the NAZ, as labeled on the chart NAZinside:
2026 start of uptrend, end of minute wave ii.
2073 wave i of 1
2042 wave ii of 1, zigzag - one day
2096 wav
thursday update at 2005-12-04 19:51:26Welcome to December! I'm counting todays huge advance as the first wave of v of 3: see NAZ/SPX 120105 charts. Today looks very similar to the kickoff rally we had after the oversold Oct 28th low, the start of wave 3. It tried to get everything back in one day, and for the NAZ/NDX and SOX it succeeded (new highs). The others will follow. Make sure to read: Inside the Wave, below. Tomorrow closes out an interesting week. Peace!  
weekend update at 2005-12-04 19:51:26LONG TERM: BULLISH
We continue to label the stock market activity from the Oct 2002 low, the same as we have when we identified that significant bottom: a bull market. All four of our major indices NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW are currently all aligned with basically the same wave patterns, which in itself is unusual. A summary review of our 'bullmkt' charts will display the exact wave labeling we have used all along. This bull market consists of five primary waves: I - V, as part of Cycle wave One from the Oct 2002 low. Primary waves I - IV have already completed and we are in primary wave V. This last primary wave has been subdividing into two lesser degrees of waves: major (1 - 5) and intermediate (i - v). Thus far, we have completed major waves 1 - 2, and intermediate waves i - ii, and are currently in intermediate wave iii. Upon completion of wave iii, we should correct in a wave iv, advance again in a wave v, (completing wave 3), correct in a wave
anticipating the future, by looking at the past at 2005-12-04 19:51:26Unlike the 1990's, when stocks were soaring into levels unkown. In this decade, we seem to be climbing the price level ladder that is already in place. What I mean by this, is that when the market collapsed during the early part of the decade, certain resistance levels were created on the way down. The market would decline, then start to rally, run into selling pressure, and then resume the decline. These selling pressure levels now provide the market with resistance on the way back up. I like to call these EW pivots points, because they usually occur at a specific turning points within a wave. If you recall, we used EW pivot points to aide us in identifying the end of the recent intermediate term correction, and also when the advance began, in identifying certain levels the markets needed to penetrate in order to get the advance going in earnest.
I have fully examined three of our four horsemen: NAZ/NDX/SPX. The
Whoa, That August Revision at 2005-11-12 20:28:49
The job report, no shock was tainted because of the hurricane although there were a couple of negatives in there for October.
The standout item was that August, not a hurricane month, was taken down to 148,000 from 211,000 job gains. That's a big chunk taken out of the last few months. The stock market seems to be shrugging this off so maybe I should too but that many job gains no longer there is not good. Perhaps of no consequence but yikes.
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