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  - thursday update
  - more fuel for the Tech advance: NDX/NAZ/SOX
  - weekend update
  - weekend update: short term
  - SWN - 110405; 15-minute chart
  - FARO - 110405
  - Monday's charts
  - THC - 110705; 15-minute chart
  - WFII - 110705; 15-minute chart
  - BZH - 110805; 15-minute chart
   

 
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Equity curve for Trading System no2.

382% Model portfolio performance for 2005!


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the dow theory revisited
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26

The theory was originally derived from the editorials of Charles H. Dow (1851-1902), first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company.The Dow Theory asserts that bull markets are characterised by a primary trend that consists of three major upward thrusts interrupted by two pull-backs i.e. periods of weakness. It was later redefined, after his death, to state that a new high in the DJ Industrials had to be confirmed by a new high in the DJ Transports, and visa versa. Charles Dow, should therefore be credited with discovering the basic tenets of the EW in the late 1800's: a five wave sequence, with 3 waves up and 2 interceding waves down. In modern times, the U.S. has shifted from being an industrial nation to a service nation, and as a result, the redefined theory is even considered pretty much passe. I tend to disagree, somewhat. An expanding economy, whether a service one or not, still



monday midday
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26
SHORT TERM: neutral
Watching today's action, we witnessed new short term highs in the NAZ/SPX/DOW, but the NDX has fallen short. Since I can now count 5 waves up from the Oct 28th lows, this is probably a good place to play it safe. I still can't rule out an extension from here: if the NDX takes out it's 1660 highs, or the DOW 10,720, or the SPX 1242; that would probably be the scenario. But for now, maybe a short term pullback is in the offering. Support should hold around the area just before this recent runup: that is the previous fourth wave: SPX 1215 and NAZ 2165. Let's see what unfolds!
This does not change either the intermediate or long term bullish view. 
monday update
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26

SHORT TERM: neutral to positive.
The SOX index and the TRANsports look like they have more work to do on the upside. Our four horsemen: NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW seem to be consolidating recent gains with their sideways activity for most of today. On the 15 minute charts, it just doesn't look like this market is ready to go down yet. It had ample opportunity today. Keep on eye on the SOX index and the TRANsports on tuesday. They should provide the answer.
INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM: bullish.  


tuesday midday
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26

SHORT TERM: positive.
We've had a breakout in the DOW, exceeding 10,720 and new highs in the SOX index. It appears to me the market is preparing to extend this advance again before any meaningful correction occurs.
LONG/INTERMEDIATE TERM: bullish.


tuesday update
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26

SHORT TERM: NEUTRAL.
I've turned into an excellent short term contrary indicator lately, amazing. Looks like we're finally getting a short term correction. Let's see if this market gets oversold on the 15minute charts, and then do some buying. Added two charts: NAZ/SPX 111505. Feel we've completed the five waves up from the late Oct lows, and should now correct a day or two into the previous fourth wave support.
INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM: BULLISH


 

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