happy thanksgiving
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26
Hope you all are enjoying the holiday.
I see some short term developments unfolding in the markets. They do not effect the intermediate/long term trend, which is still very positive. However, we are getting overbought in most of the indices on an intermediate term basis. The markets have rallied for over four weeks now, without so much as a 2% intraday correction. They may be getting ready to take a pause in this strong advance. I'm still positive short term. We should be seeing new highs over the next few days to complete this wave. Will give the entire market a review this weekend. Enjoy the holiday!  
weekend update
at 2005-12-04 19:51:26
I came into Thanksgiving with a little bit of scepticism short term on the markets. I had noticed that not only the short term momentum oscillators were overbought, but also the intermediate term ones as well. So I've spent the last few days examining the bull market thus far, and our current uptrend. And, I came to one conclusion: we're in a very strong market and we're going higher! This uptrend looks better than the wave (i) Apr '05 advance and the Oct '04 wave (1) advance. In fact, it looks more like the explosive wave (III) Mar '03 advance. Three of our four indices: NAZ/NDX/SPX, are at new highs and in uncharted ground for the bull market, and the DOW is only 20 points shy of a new EOD bull market high. The TRANsports keep on climbing, and the SOX index is bumping into 500 already. What a difference one month can make!
LONG TERM: BULLISH
The explosiveness of our third of a third continues to impress e
monday update at 2005-12-04 19:51:26SHORT TERM: POSITIVE
I did some buying today. The markets finally took a breather, as selling came in at the open and continued into the close. All in all, down about 1% and down 1.5% from the recent highs. All within the normal context of this advance from late Oct.
I'm posting two 15min charts: NAZ/SPX. As you will notice from the MACD, we are right about as oversold as we were on the previous dip. And, the 5 day RSI we were concerned with, pulled back quite a bit today too: 90+ to 56. So the markets are now in a better technical position then they were just one trading day ago. Still looking for wave 3 to resume, possibly from these levels, or a bit lower.
INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM: BULLISH  ![]()
tuesday update at 2005-12-04 19:51:26SHORT TERM: POSITIVE
Today looked like a continuation of yesterday, with some subtle differences. Yesterday, the market rallied in the pre-market, and was sold off immediately on the open, closing near the lows: a 1% down day. Today, a pre-market rally carried into the open till about 10AM, whereupon the market was sold off again into the close: a slightly down day. Prior to todays selling, the DOW made a new intraday high for this uptrend, which was confirmed by DIAmonds.
I continue to label the last four days activity as wave iv of 3, and expect another rally to carry the market to new highs, before wave 3 completes. See NAZ daily and NAZ 112905 charts. If we are in the midst of correcting the advance from the late Oct lows, then we are probably about half way through it. The next few days should tell. Either way, I'll be adding to my long positions tomorrow. Best to your trading!
wednesday update at 2005-12-04 19:51:26We're deviating from our usual format today to answer a question from one of our readers:
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Hi Tony:
I have been reading your column on this blog for about a couple of weeks. I have been following a lot of theories regarding market direction. Even have spoken to market technicians at UBS and from stockcharts.com who happen to be really good. As far as i can understand you believe the S&P could go to 1350 or so and nasdaq could go to 2500-2600. As far as S&P is concerned, there is a lot of debate. Some people think market would pullback to 1225-1235 area and then make the LAST attempt to run to 1275 before we go into the bear market. Some people think after this pullback, we would head to 1300 and then a little pullback..and then to the powerfull rally. I would like to know if you agree with that. If you believe we could go to 1350 on s&p ..why? i meant, why could we not top around 1275 o
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